The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
59%Washington HuskiesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WASH by 4.0market WASH by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.8 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington Huskies at 59% to win, with the market at WASH by 10.
WASH has the advantage in rushing: WASH rushing ranks #9, BOIS defends it at #105; the other way BOIS #43 into WASH's #9.
WASH has the advantage in big plays: WASH rush explosiveness ranks #35, BOIS defends it at #131; the other way BOIS #58 into WASH's #7.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours BOIS. BOIS sack rate ranks #51, WASH defends it at #97; the other way WASH #114 into BOIS's #55. The pick still lands on WASH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: WASH has 6 more days since its last game (WASH 14d, BOIS 8d).
Form: WASH has the better last five games by 15.0 points a game (WASH +16.6, BOIS +1.6).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it WASH by 4.0 against a market WASH by 10: 6.0 points of daylight in BOIS's favour. The model's total is 49.8 against a line of 55.5: 5.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WASH by 4.0 · market WASH by 10
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
WASH passing ranks #37, BOIS defends it at #9; the other way BOIS #81 into WASH's #50.
Rushing game
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH rushing ranks #9, BOIS defends it at #105; the other way BOIS #43 into WASH's #9.
Third down & red zone
WASH
Slight advantage
WASH points / scoring opportunity ranks #15, BOIS defends it at #111; the other way BOIS #72 into WASH's #15.
Big plays
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH rush explosiveness ranks #35, BOIS defends it at #131; the other way BOIS #58 into WASH's #7.
Pass protection & rush
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS sack rate ranks #51, WASH defends it at #97; the other way WASH #114 into BOIS's #55.
Ball security
WASH
Slight advantage
WASH turnovers / game ranks #44, BOIS defends it at #28; the other way BOIS #96 into WASH's #45.
Form (last 5)
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH +16.6 per game over the last five, BOIS +1.6.
Market
WASH
Clear advantage
Consensus has WASH by 10; the model says WASH by 4.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WASH by 10 · model WASH by 4.0
Mkt WASH 10
Model WASH 4.0
← BOIS by 28tieWASH by 28 →
11.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 4.3% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 49.8
Mkt 55.5
Model 49.8
24 pts6096 pts
14.6% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 49.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
