The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Tulane Green WaveLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TULN by 1.8market UNT by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
65.8 pointsmarket 66.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tulane Green Wave at 54% to win, with the market at UNT by 1.5.
TULN has the advantage in big plays: TULN pass explosiveness ranks #75, UNT defends it at #112; the other way UNT #63 into TULN's #12.
Counterpoint: passing favours UNT. UNT passing ranks #14, TULN defends it at #67; the other way TULN #22 into UNT's #29. The pick still lands on TULN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with TULN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TULN by 1.8 against a market UNT by 1.5: 3.3 points of daylight in TULN's favour. The model's total is 65.8 against a line of 66.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TULN by 1.8 · market UNT by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor UNT, but the model still picks TULN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
UNT
Slight advantage
UNT passing ranks #14, TULN defends it at #67; the other way TULN #22 into UNT's #29.
Rushing game
UNT
Slight advantage
UNT rushing ranks #3, TULN defends it at #62; the other way TULN #70 into UNT's #88.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
TULN third-down conversion ranks #44, UNT defends it at #105; the other way UNT #24 into TULN's #70.
Big plays
TULN
Slight advantage
TULN pass explosiveness ranks #75, UNT defends it at #112; the other way UNT #63 into TULN's #12.
Pass protection & rush
TULN
Clear advantage
TULN sack rate ranks #8, UNT defends it at #96; the other way UNT #25 into TULN's #29.
Ball security
=
Even
TULN turnovers / game ranks #62, UNT defends it at #6; the other way UNT #84 into TULN's #16.
Form (last 5)
UNT
Clear advantage
TULN +8.8 per game over the last five, UNT +15.4.
Market
UNT
Slight advantage
Consensus has UNT by 1.5; the model says TULN by 1.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UNT by 1.5 · model TULN by 1.8
Mkt UNT 1.5
Model TULN 1.8
← UNT by 28tieTULN by 28 →
2.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 66.5 · model 65.8
Mkt 66.5
Model 65.8
24 pts6096 pts
2.5% of FBS games finish between 66.5 and 65.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
