The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
83%Washington State CougarsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WSU by 16.6market WSU by 14
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
34.7 pointsmarket 42.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington State Cougars at 83% to win, with the market at WSU by 14.
WSU has the advantage in big plays: WSU pass explosiveness ranks #120, ORST defends it at #135; the other way ORST #132 into WSU's #18.
WSU has the advantage in passing: WSU passing ranks #105, ORST defends it at #95; the other way ORST #122 into WSU's #15.
Rest: ORST has 7 more days since its last game (WSU 7d, ORST 14d).
Form: WSU has the better last five games by 13.0 points a game (WSU +11.0, ORST -2.0).
Home field is with WSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it WSU by 16.6 against a market WSU by 14: 2.6 points of daylight in WSU's favour. The model's total is 34.7 against a line of 42.5: 7.8 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WSU by 16.6 · market WSU by 14
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
WSU
Clear advantage
WSU passing ranks #105, ORST defends it at #95; the other way ORST #122 into WSU's #15.
Rushing game
WSU
Slight advantage
WSU rushing ranks #88, ORST defends it at #65; the other way ORST #120 into WSU's #53.
Third down & red zone
WSU
Slight advantage
WSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #48, ORST defends it at #46; the other way ORST #127 into WSU's #27.
Big plays
WSU
Clear advantage
WSU pass explosiveness ranks #120, ORST defends it at #135; the other way ORST #132 into WSU's #18.
Pass protection & rush
WSU
Clear advantage
WSU sack rate ranks #50, ORST defends it at #123; the other way ORST #73 into WSU's #17.
Ball security
=
Even
WSU turnovers / game ranks #113, ORST defends it at #118; the other way ORST #116 into WSU's #114.
Form (last 5)
WSU
Clear advantage
WSU +11.0 per game over the last five, ORST −2.0.
Market
WSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has WSU by 14; the model says WSU by 16.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WSU by 14 · model WSU by 16.6
Mkt WSU 14
Model WSU 16.6
← ORST by 28tieWSU by 28 →
1.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 14, a number 4.1% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 42.5 · model 34.7
Mkt 42.5
Model 34.7
24 pts6096 pts
14.3% of FBS games finish between 42.5 and 34.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
