The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
70%Penn State Nittany LionsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PSU by 8.8market PSU by 14
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.1 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Penn State Nittany Lions at 70% to win, with the market at PSU by 14.
PSU has the advantage in rushing: PSU rushing ranks #28, RUTG defends it at #133; the other way RUTG #79 into PSU's #71.
PSU has the advantage in big plays: PSU rush explosiveness ranks #53, RUTG defends it at #130; the other way RUTG #116 into PSU's #60.
Form: PSU has the better last five games by 19.8 points a game (RUTG -8.2, PSU +11.6).
Home field is with RUTG, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it PSU by 8.8 against a market PSU by 14: 5.2 points of daylight in RUTG's favour. The model's total is 56.1 against a line of 55.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PSU by 8.8 · market PSU by 14
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
PSU
Clear advantage
PSU passing ranks #58, RUTG defends it at #127; the other way RUTG #32 into PSU's #32.
Rushing game
PSU
Clear advantage
PSU rushing ranks #28, RUTG defends it at #133; the other way RUTG #79 into PSU's #71.
Third down & red zone
PSU
Clear advantage
PSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #25, RUTG defends it at #130; the other way RUTG #101 into PSU's #37.
Big plays
PSU
Clear advantage
PSU rush explosiveness ranks #53, RUTG defends it at #130; the other way RUTG #116 into PSU's #60.
Pass protection & rush
PSU
Clear advantage
PSU sack rate ranks #69, RUTG defends it at #126; the other way RUTG #123 into PSU's #24.
Ball security
=
Even
PSU turnovers / game ranks #7, RUTG defends it at #112; the other way RUTG #17 into PSU's #104.
Form (last 5)
PSU
Clear advantage
RUTG −8.2 per game over the last five, PSU +11.6.
Market
PSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has PSU by 14; the model says PSU by 8.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket PSU by 14 · model PSU by 8.8
Mkt PSU 14
Model PSU 8.8
← PSU by 28tieRUTG by 28 →
4.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 14, a number 4.1% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 56.1
Mkt 55.5
Model 56.1
24 pts6096 pts
1.5% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 56.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
