The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
56%Miami HurricanesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIA by 2.7market MIA by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.1 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Miami Hurricanes at 56% to win, with the market at MIA by 6.5.
MIA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: MIA points / scoring opportunity ranks #24, PITT defends it at #83; the other way PITT #73 into MIA's #5.
MIA has the advantage in rushing: MIA rushing ranks #65, PITT defends it at #6; the other way PITT #111 into MIA's #16.
Counterpoint: big plays favours PITT. PITT rush explosiveness ranks #55, MIA defends it at #98; the other way MIA #126 into PITT's #63. The pick still lands on MIA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: MIA has the better last five games by 15.2 points a game (PITT -6.0, MIA +9.2).
Home field is with PITT, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it MIA by 2.7 against a market MIA by 6.5: 3.8 points of daylight in PITT's favour. The model's total is 56.1 against a line of 48.5: 7.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIA by 2.7 · market MIA by 6.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA passing ranks #10, PITT defends it at #17; the other way PITT #46 into MIA's #18.
Rushing game
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA rushing ranks #65, PITT defends it at #6; the other way PITT #111 into MIA's #16.
Third down & red zone
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA points / scoring opportunity ranks #24, PITT defends it at #83; the other way PITT #73 into MIA's #5.
Big plays
PITT
Slight advantage
PITT rush explosiveness ranks #55, MIA defends it at #98; the other way MIA #126 into PITT's #63.
Pass protection & rush
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA sack rate ranks #12, PITT defends it at #53; the other way PITT #116 into MIA's #22.
Ball security
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA turnovers / game ranks #25, PITT defends it at #34; the other way PITT #124 into MIA's #35.
Form (last 5)
MIA
Clear advantage
PITT −6.0 per game over the last five, MIA +9.2.
Market
MIA
Clear advantage
Consensus has MIA by 6.5; the model says MIA by 2.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MIA by 6.5 · model MIA by 2.7
Mkt MIA 6.5
Model MIA 2.7
← MIA by 28tiePITT by 28 →
8.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 56.1
Mkt 48.5
Model 56.1
24 pts6096 pts
18.2% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 56.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
