The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
92%Notre Dame Fighting IrishStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ND by 24.7market ND by 32.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.0 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 92% to win, with the market at ND by 32.5.
ND has the advantage in passing: ND passing ranks #11, STAN defends it at #116; the other way STAN #94 into ND's #6.
ND has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: ND third-down conversion ranks #13, STAN defends it at #104; the other way STAN #90 into ND's #39.
Form: ND has the better last five games by 46.2 points a game (STAN -12.6, ND +33.6).
Home field is with STAN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ND by 24.7 against a market ND by 32.5: 7.8 points of daylight in STAN's favour. The model's total is 48.0 against a line of 49.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ND by 24.7 · market ND by 32.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ND
Clear advantage
ND passing ranks #11, STAN defends it at #116; the other way STAN #94 into ND's #6.
Rushing game
ND
Clear advantage
ND rushing ranks #11, STAN defends it at #18; the other way STAN #124 into ND's #36.
Third down & red zone
ND
Clear advantage
ND third-down conversion ranks #13, STAN defends it at #104; the other way STAN #90 into ND's #39.
Big plays
ND
Clear advantage
ND rush explosiveness ranks #8, STAN defends it at #32; the other way STAN #133 into ND's #23.
Pass protection & rush
ND
Clear advantage
ND sack rate ranks #14, STAN defends it at #105; the other way STAN #127 into ND's #16.
Ball security
ND
Clear advantage
ND turnovers / game ranks #9, STAN defends it at #94; the other way STAN #90 into ND's #12.
Form (last 5)
ND
Clear advantage
STAN −12.6 per game over the last five, ND +33.6.
Market
ND
Clear advantage
Consensus has ND by 32.5; the model says ND by 24.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ND by 32.5 · model ND by 24.7
Mkt ND 32.5
Model ND 24.7
← ND by 28tieSTAN by 28 →
3.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 48.0
Mkt 49.5
Model 48.0
24 pts6096 pts
2.1% of FBS games finish between 49.5 and 48.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
