The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
73%Oregon DucksStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ORE by 10.6market ORE by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.2 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Oregon Ducks at 73% to win, with the market at ORE by 6.5.
ORE has the advantage in passing: ORE passing ranks #16, WASH defends it at #50; the other way WASH #37 into ORE's #27.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours WASH. WASH points / scoring opportunity ranks #15, ORE defends it at #92; the other way ORE #36 into WASH's #15. The pick still lands on ORE because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: WASH has the better last five games by 10.0 points a game (WASH +16.6, ORE +6.6).
Home field is with WASH, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ORE by 10.6 against a market ORE by 6.5: 4.1 points of daylight in ORE's favour. The model's total is 56.2 against a line of 51.5: 4.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ORE by 10.6 · market ORE by 6.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor WASH, but the model still picks ORE. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
ORE
Slight advantage
ORE passing ranks #16, WASH defends it at #50; the other way WASH #37 into ORE's #27.
Rushing game
WASH
Slight advantage
WASH rushing ranks #9, ORE defends it at #37; the other way ORE #19 into WASH's #9.
Third down & red zone
WASH
Slight advantage
WASH points / scoring opportunity ranks #15, ORE defends it at #92; the other way ORE #36 into WASH's #15.
Big plays
=
Even
WASH rush explosiveness ranks #35, ORE defends it at #75; the other way ORE #37 into WASH's #7.
Pass protection & rush
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE sack rate ranks #32, WASH defends it at #97; the other way WASH #114 into ORE's #63.
Ball security
=
Even
ORE turnovers / game ranks #34, WASH defends it at #45; the other way WASH #44 into ORE's #50.
Form (last 5)
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH +16.6 per game over the last five, ORE +6.6.
Market
ORE
Clear advantage
Consensus has ORE by 6.5; the model says ORE by 10.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ORE by 6.5 · model ORE by 10.6
Mkt ORE 6.5
Model ORE 10.6
← ORE by 28tieWASH by 28 →
6.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 56.2
Mkt 51.5
Model 56.2
24 pts6096 pts
10.9% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 56.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
