The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%Western Michigan BroncosSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WMU by 5.5market WMU by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.6 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Western Michigan Broncos at 63% to win, with the market at WMU by 10.
WMU has the advantage in rushing: WMU rushing ranks #51, EMU defends it at #127; the other way EMU #61 into WMU's #31.
WMU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: WMU third-down conversion ranks #62, EMU defends it at #129; the other way EMU #53 into WMU's #12.
Rest: EMU has 3 more days since its last game (EMU 10d, WMU 7d).
Form: WMU has the better last five games by 17.0 points a game (EMU -2.0, WMU +15.0).
Home field is with EMU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it WMU by 5.5 against a market WMU by 10: 4.5 points of daylight in EMU's favour. The model's total is 46.6 against a line of 49.5: 2.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WMU by 5.5 · market WMU by 10
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
WMU
Slight advantage
WMU passing ranks #119, EMU defends it at #112; the other way EMU #57 into WMU's #11.
Rushing game
WMU
Clear advantage
WMU rushing ranks #51, EMU defends it at #127; the other way EMU #61 into WMU's #31.
Third down & red zone
WMU
Slight advantage
WMU third-down conversion ranks #62, EMU defends it at #129; the other way EMU #53 into WMU's #12.
Big plays
=
Even
EMU rush explosiveness ranks #67, WMU defends it at #103; the other way WMU #98 into EMU's #116.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
WMU sack rate ranks #92, EMU defends it at #115; the other way EMU #5 into WMU's #7.
Ball security
WMU
Clear advantage
WMU turnovers / game ranks #38, EMU defends it at #124; the other way EMU #58 into WMU's #24.
Form (last 5)
WMU
Clear advantage
EMU −2.0 per game over the last five, WMU +15.0.
Market
WMU
Clear advantage
Consensus has WMU by 10; the model says WMU by 5.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WMU by 10 · model WMU by 5.5
Mkt WMU 10
Model WMU 5.5
← WMU by 28tieEMU by 28 →
6.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 4.3% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 46.6
Mkt 49.5
Model 46.6
24 pts6096 pts
7.5% of FBS games finish between 49.5 and 46.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
