The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
60%California Golden BearsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CAL by 4.3market CAL by 4.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.8 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has California Golden Bears at 60% to win, with the market at CAL by 4.5.
CAL has the advantage in passing: CAL passing ranks #64, STAN defends it at #116; the other way STAN #94 into CAL's #40.
CAL has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: CAL points / scoring opportunity ranks #65, STAN defends it at #52; the other way STAN #121 into CAL's #71.
Counterpoint: rushing favours STAN. STAN rushing ranks #124, CAL defends it at #123; the other way CAL #127 into STAN's #18. The pick still lands on CAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with STAN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it CAL by 4.3 against a market CAL by 4.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 46.8 against a line of 47.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CAL by 4.3 · market CAL by 4.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CAL
Clear advantage
CAL passing ranks #64, STAN defends it at #116; the other way STAN #94 into CAL's #40.
Rushing game
STAN
Clear advantage
STAN rushing ranks #124, CAL defends it at #123; the other way CAL #127 into STAN's #18.
Third down & red zone
CAL
Slight advantage
CAL points / scoring opportunity ranks #65, STAN defends it at #52; the other way STAN #121 into CAL's #71.
Big plays
=
Even
CAL pass explosiveness ranks #107, STAN defends it at #83; the other way STAN #65 into CAL's #10.
Pass protection & rush
CAL
Slight advantage
CAL sack rate ranks #78, STAN defends it at #105; the other way STAN #127 into CAL's #108.
Ball security
=
Even
CAL turnovers / game ranks #63, STAN defends it at #94; the other way STAN #90 into CAL's #98.
Form (last 5)
CAL
Clear advantage
STAN −12.6 per game over the last five, CAL −5.8.
Market
CAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has CAL by 4.5; the model says CAL by 4.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket CAL by 4.5 · model CAL by 4.3
Mkt CAL 4.5
Model CAL 4.3
← CAL by 28tieSTAN by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 46.8
Mkt 47.5
Model 46.8
24 pts6096 pts
2.1% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 46.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
