The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
83%South Florida BullsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
USF by 16.7market USF by 21.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
72.9 pointsmarket 68.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has South Florida Bulls at 83% to win, with the market at USF by 21.5.
USF has the advantage in passing: USF passing ranks #9, UAB defends it at #134; the other way UAB #103 into USF's #34.
USF has the advantage in rushing: USF rushing ranks #46, UAB defends it at #126; the other way UAB #52 into USF's #32.
Form: USF has the better last five games by 34.4 points a game (UAB -15.6, USF +18.8).
Home field is with UAB, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it USF by 16.7 against a market USF by 21.5: 4.8 points of daylight in UAB's favour. The model's total is 72.9 against a line of 68.5: 4.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model USF by 16.7 · market USF by 21.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
USF
Clear advantage
USF passing ranks #9, UAB defends it at #134; the other way UAB #103 into USF's #34.
Rushing game
USF
Clear advantage
USF rushing ranks #46, UAB defends it at #126; the other way UAB #52 into USF's #32.
Third down & red zone
USF
Clear advantage
USF points / scoring opportunity ranks #17, UAB defends it at #134; the other way UAB #75 into USF's #28.
Big plays
=
Even
USF pass explosiveness ranks #14, UAB defends it at #134; the other way UAB #72 into USF's #66.
Pass protection & rush
USF
Slight advantage
USF sack rate ranks #43, UAB defends it at #72; the other way UAB #94 into USF's #90.
Ball security
USF
Clear advantage
USF turnovers / game ranks #104, UAB defends it at #123; the other way UAB #119 into USF's #10.
Form (last 5)
USF
Clear advantage
UAB −15.6 per game over the last five, USF +18.8.
Market
USF
Clear advantage
Consensus has USF by 21.5; the model says USF by 16.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket USF by 21.5 · model USF by 16.7
Mkt USF 21.5
Model USF 16.7
← USF by 28tieUAB by 28 →
4.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 68.5 · model 72.9
Mkt 68.5
Model 72.9
24 pts6096 pts
5.9% of FBS games finish between 68.5 and 72.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
