The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%UTEP MinersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UTEP by 1.0market UTEP by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.3 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UTEP Miners at 52% to win, with the market at UTEP by 4.
UTEP has the advantage in big plays: UTEP pass explosiveness ranks #17, NMSU defends it at #43; the other way NMSU #109 into UTEP's #21.
UTEP has the advantage in rushing: UTEP rushing ranks #105, NMSU defends it at #26; the other way NMSU #134 into UTEP's #21.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours NMSU. NMSU turnovers / game ranks #131, UTEP defends it at #107; the other way UTEP #132 into NMSU's #11. The pick still lands on UTEP because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with UTEP, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UTEP by 1.0 against a market UTEP by 4: 3.0 points of daylight in NMSU's favour. The model's total is 49.3 against a line of 44.5: 4.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UTEP by 1.0 · market UTEP by 4
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NMSU
Slight advantage
NMSU passing ranks #97, UTEP defends it at #76; the other way UTEP #132 into NMSU's #85.
Rushing game
UTEP
Slight advantage
UTEP rushing ranks #105, NMSU defends it at #26; the other way NMSU #134 into UTEP's #21.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
NMSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #113, UTEP defends it at #85; the other way UTEP #96 into NMSU's #34.
Big plays
UTEP
Clear advantage
UTEP pass explosiveness ranks #17, NMSU defends it at #43; the other way NMSU #109 into UTEP's #21.
Pass protection & rush
UTEP
Slight advantage
UTEP sack rate ranks #86, NMSU defends it at #113; the other way NMSU #96 into UTEP's #67.
Ball security
NMSU
Clear advantage
NMSU turnovers / game ranks #131, UTEP defends it at #107; the other way UTEP #132 into NMSU's #11.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
UTEP −12.6 per game over the last five, NMSU −11.8.
Market
UTEP
Clear advantage
Consensus has UTEP by 4; the model says UTEP by 1.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UTEP by 4 · model UTEP by 1.0
Mkt UTEP 4
Model UTEP 1.0
← NMSU by 28tieUTEP by 28 →
6.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 4, a number 3.4% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 49.3
Mkt 44.5
Model 49.3
24 pts6096 pts
12.0% of FBS games finish between 44.5 and 49.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
