The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
50%Louisiana Tech BulldogsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LT by 0.2market LIB by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.0 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at 50% to win, with the market at LIB by 1.5.
LT has the advantage in rushing: LT rushing ranks #50, LIB defends it at #108; the other way LIB #40 into LT's #41.
LT has the advantage in passing: LT passing ranks #91, LIB defends it at #69; the other way LIB #102 into LT's #30.
Home field is with LT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LT by 0.2 against a market LIB by 1.5: 1.7 points of daylight in LT's favour. The model's total is 45.0 against a line of 45.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LT by 0.2 · market LIB by 1.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
LT
Slight advantage
LT passing ranks #91, LIB defends it at #69; the other way LIB #102 into LT's #30.
Rushing game
LT
Slight advantage
LT rushing ranks #50, LIB defends it at #108; the other way LIB #40 into LT's #41.
Third down & red zone
LT
Slight advantage
LT third-down conversion ranks #55, LIB defends it at #117; the other way LIB #65 into LT's #64.
Big plays
LT
Slight advantage
LT pass explosiveness ranks #45, LIB defends it at #105; the other way LIB #69 into LT's #84.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
LIB sack rate ranks #100, LT defends it at #118; the other way LT #107 into LIB's #107.
Ball security
LT
Clear advantage
LT turnovers / game ranks #74, LIB defends it at #82; the other way LIB #120 into LT's #9.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
LT +0.2 per game over the last five, LIB +1.2.
Market
LIB
Slight advantage
Consensus has LIB by 1.5; the model says LT by 0.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket LIB by 1.5 · model LT by 0.2
Mkt LIB 1.5
Model LT 0.2
← LIB by 28tieLT by 28 →
1.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 45.0
Mkt 45.5
Model 45.0
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
