The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
86%Army Black KnightsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ARMY by 18.6market ARMY by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
40.3 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Army Black Knights at 86% to win, with the market at ARMY by 10.
ARMY has the advantage in passing: ARMY passing ranks #28, TLSA defends it at #90; the other way TLSA #120 into ARMY's #78.
ARMY has the advantage in big plays: ARMY pass explosiveness ranks #1, TLSA defends it at #51; the other way TLSA #103 into ARMY's #38.
Rest: ARMY has 7 more days since its last game (ARMY 14d, TLSA 7d).
Form: ARMY has the better last five games by 7.2 points a game (ARMY +5.4, TLSA -1.8).
Home field is with ARMY, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ARMY by 18.6 against a market ARMY by 10: 8.6 points of daylight in ARMY's favour. The model's total is 40.3 against a line of 43.5: 3.2 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ARMY by 18.6 · market ARMY by 10
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ARMY
Clear advantage
ARMY passing ranks #28, TLSA defends it at #90; the other way TLSA #120 into ARMY's #78.
Rushing game
=
Even
ARMY rushing ranks #69, TLSA defends it at #43; the other way TLSA #117 into ARMY's #75.
Third down & red zone
ARMY
Slight advantage
ARMY points / scoring opportunity ranks #66, TLSA defends it at #78; the other way TLSA #105 into ARMY's #75.
Big plays
ARMY
Slight advantage
ARMY pass explosiveness ranks #1, TLSA defends it at #51; the other way TLSA #103 into ARMY's #38.
Pass protection & rush
TLSA
Slight advantage
TLSA sack rate ranks #68, ARMY defends it at #132; the other way ARMY #17 into TLSA's #43.
Ball security
ARMY
Clear advantage
ARMY turnovers / game ranks #10, TLSA defends it at #113; the other way TLSA #106 into ARMY's #74.
Form (last 5)
ARMY
Clear advantage
ARMY +5.4 per game over the last five, TLSA −1.8.
Market
ARMY
Clear advantage
Consensus has ARMY by 10; the model says ARMY by 18.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ARMY by 10 · model ARMY by 18.6
Mkt ARMY 10
Model ARMY 18.6
← TLSA by 28tieARMY by 28 →
10.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 4.3% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 40.3
Mkt 43.5
Model 40.3
24 pts6096 pts
5.9% of FBS games finish between 43.5 and 40.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
