The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
67%Iowa State CyclonesSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ISU by 7.4market ISU by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.0 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Iowa State Cyclones at 67% to win, with the market at ISU by 3.
ISU has the advantage in big plays: ISU rush explosiveness ranks #75, KU defends it at #124; the other way KU #108 into ISU's #5.
ISU has the advantage in passing: ISU passing ranks #45, KU defends it at #122; the other way KU #44 into ISU's #64.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours KU. KU sack rate ranks #48, ISU defends it at #129; the other way ISU #82 into KU's #83. The pick still lands on ISU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: ISU has the better last five games by 12.2 points a game (ISU +3.0, KU -9.2).
Home field is with ISU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ISU by 7.4 against a market ISU by 3: 4.4 points of daylight in ISU's favour. The model's total is 50.0 against a line of 55.5: 5.5 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ISU by 7.4 · market ISU by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ISU
Slight advantage
ISU passing ranks #45, KU defends it at #122; the other way KU #44 into ISU's #64.
Rushing game
ISU
Slight advantage
ISU rushing ranks #42, KU defends it at #97; the other way KU #16 into ISU's #15.
Third down & red zone
ISU
Slight advantage
ISU points / scoring opportunity ranks #85, KU defends it at #120; the other way KU #46 into ISU's #21.
Big plays
ISU
Clear advantage
ISU rush explosiveness ranks #75, KU defends it at #124; the other way KU #108 into ISU's #5.
Pass protection & rush
KU
Clear advantage
KU sack rate ranks #48, ISU defends it at #129; the other way ISU #82 into KU's #83.
Ball security
ISU
Clear advantage
ISU turnovers / game ranks #59, KU defends it at #116; the other way KU #45 into ISU's #39.
Form (last 5)
ISU
Clear advantage
ISU +3.0 per game over the last five, KU −9.2.
Market
ISU
Slight advantage
Consensus has ISU by 3; the model says ISU by 7.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ISU by 3 · model ISU by 7.4
Mkt ISU 3
Model ISU 7.4
← KU by 28tieISU by 28 →
8.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 50.0
Mkt 55.5
Model 50.0
24 pts6096 pts
14.6% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 50.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
