The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
71%Arizona State Sun DevilsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ASU by 9.7market ASU by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.3 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Arizona State Sun Devils at 71% to win, with the market at ASU by 7.
ASU has the advantage in passing: ASU passing ranks #69, COLO defends it at #123; the other way COLO #99 into ASU's #41.
Rest: COLO has 7 more days since its last game (COLO 14d, ASU 7d).
Form: ASU has the better last five games by 27.2 points a game (COLO -24.6, ASU +2.6).
Home field is with COLO, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ASU by 9.7 against a market ASU by 7: 2.7 points of daylight in ASU's favour. The model's total is 48.3 against a line of 47.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ASU by 9.7 · market ASU by 7
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ASU
Clear advantage
ASU passing ranks #69, COLO defends it at #123; the other way COLO #99 into ASU's #41.
Rushing game
=
Even
ASU rushing ranks #91, COLO defends it at #58; the other way COLO #98 into ASU's #44.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
COLO third-down conversion ranks #85, ASU defends it at #42; the other way ASU #124 into COLO's #37.
Big plays
=
Even
ASU pass explosiveness ranks #46, COLO defends it at #131; the other way COLO #9 into ASU's #40.
Pass protection & rush
ASU
Clear advantage
ASU sack rate ranks #84, COLO defends it at #125; the other way COLO #130 into ASU's #34.
Ball security
COLO
Slight advantage
COLO turnovers / game ranks #88, ASU defends it at #85; the other way ASU #108 into COLO's #69.
Form (last 5)
ASU
Clear advantage
COLO −24.6 per game over the last five, ASU +2.6.
Market
ASU
Clear advantage
Consensus has ASU by 7; the model says ASU by 9.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ASU by 7 · model ASU by 9.7
Mkt ASU 7
Model ASU 9.7
← ASU by 28tieCOLO by 28 →
1.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 7.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 48.3
Mkt 47.5
Model 48.3
24 pts6096 pts
3.2% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 48.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
