The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
58%Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GT by 3.4market GT by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
66.1 pointsmarket 61.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at 58% to win, with the market at GT by 2.5.
GT has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: GT third-down conversion ranks #22, PITT defends it at #15; the other way PITT #120 into GT's #79.
Counterpoint: passing favours PITT. PITT passing ranks #46, GT defends it at #104; the other way GT #12 into PITT's #17. The pick still lands on GT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with GT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it GT by 3.4 against a market GT by 2.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 66.1 against a line of 61.5: 4.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GT by 3.4 · market GT by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
PITT
Slight advantage
PITT passing ranks #46, GT defends it at #104; the other way GT #12 into PITT's #17.
Rushing game
=
Even
PITT rushing ranks #111, GT defends it at #73; the other way GT #47 into PITT's #6.
Third down & red zone
GT
Slight advantage
GT third-down conversion ranks #22, PITT defends it at #15; the other way PITT #120 into GT's #79.
Big plays
PITT
Slight advantage
PITT rush explosiveness ranks #55, GT defends it at #79; the other way GT #97 into PITT's #63.
Pass protection & rush
GT
Clear advantage
GT sack rate ranks #7, PITT defends it at #53; the other way PITT #116 into GT's #65.
Ball security
=
Even
PITT turnovers / game ranks #124, GT defends it at #130; the other way GT #52 into PITT's #34.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
GT −7.0 per game over the last five, PITT −6.0.
Market
GT
Slight advantage
Consensus has GT by 2.5; the model says GT by 3.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket GT by 2.5 · model GT by 3.4
Mkt GT 2.5
Model GT 3.4
← PITT by 28tieGT by 28 →
5.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 61.5 · model 66.1
Mkt 61.5
Model 66.1
24 pts6096 pts
10.4% of FBS games finish between 61.5 and 66.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
