The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
98%Georgia BulldogsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UGA by 49.5market UGA by 42.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.1 pointsmarket 53.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Georgia Bulldogs at 98% to win, with the market at UGA by 42.5.
UGA has the advantage in rushing: UGA rushing ranks #36, CLT defends it at #122; the other way CLT #135 into UGA's #10.
UGA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: UGA third-down conversion ranks #35, CLT defends it at #115; the other way CLT #111 into UGA's #36.
Form: UGA has the better last five games by 44.0 points a game (UGA +16.0, CLT -28.0).
Home field is with UGA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UGA by 49.5 against a market UGA by 42.5: 7.0 points of daylight in UGA's favour. The model's total is 52.1 against a line of 53.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UGA by 49.5 · market UGA by 42.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA passing ranks #38, CLT defends it at #96; the other way CLT #117 into UGA's #73.
Rushing game
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA rushing ranks #36, CLT defends it at #122; the other way CLT #135 into UGA's #10.
Third down & red zone
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA third-down conversion ranks #35, CLT defends it at #115; the other way CLT #111 into UGA's #36.
Big plays
CLT
Slight advantage
CLT pass explosiveness ranks #10, UGA defends it at #14; the other way UGA #125 into CLT's #4.
Pass protection & rush
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA sack rate ranks #41, CLT defends it at #127; the other way CLT #103 into UGA's #117.
Ball security
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA turnovers / game ranks #22, CLT defends it at #68; the other way CLT #128 into UGA's #108.
Form (last 5)
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA +16.0 per game over the last five, CLT −28.0.
Market
UGA
Clear advantage
Consensus has UGA by 42.5; the model says UGA by 49.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UGA by 42.5 · model UGA by 49.5
Mkt UGA 42.5
Model UGA 49.5
← CLT by 28tieUGA by 28 →
3.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 53.5 · model 52.1
Mkt 53.5
Model 52.1
24 pts6096 pts
1.3% of FBS games finish between 53.5 and 52.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
