The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
96%Ohio State BuckeyesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
OSU by 30.2market OSU by 28.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
54.0 pointsmarket 54.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ohio State Buckeyes at 96% to win, with the market at OSU by 28.5.
OSU has the advantage in passing: OSU passing ranks #2, RUTG defends it at #127; the other way RUTG #32 into OSU's #7.
OSU has the advantage in rushing: OSU rushing ranks #72, RUTG defends it at #133; the other way RUTG #79 into OSU's #2.
Rest: RUTG has 7 more days since its last game (OSU 7d, RUTG 14d).
Form: OSU has the better last five games by 23.4 points a game (OSU +15.2, RUTG -8.2).
Home field is with OSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it OSU by 30.2 against a market OSU by 28.5: 1.7 points of daylight in OSU's favour. The model's total is 54.0 against a line of 54.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model OSU by 30.2 · market OSU by 28.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU passing ranks #2, RUTG defends it at #127; the other way RUTG #32 into OSU's #7.
Rushing game
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU rushing ranks #72, RUTG defends it at #133; the other way RUTG #79 into OSU's #2.
Third down & red zone
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #5, RUTG defends it at #130; the other way RUTG #101 into OSU's #8.
Big plays
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU rush explosiveness ranks #130, RUTG defends it at #130; the other way RUTG #116 into OSU's #15.
Pass protection & rush
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU sack rate ranks #27, RUTG defends it at #126; the other way RUTG #123 into OSU's #5.
Ball security
=
Even
OSU turnovers / game ranks #8, RUTG defends it at #112; the other way RUTG #17 into OSU's #101.
Form (last 5)
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU +15.2 per game over the last five, RUTG −8.2.
Market
OSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has OSU by 28.5; the model says OSU by 30.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket OSU by 28.5 · model OSU by 30.2
Mkt OSU 28.5
Model OSU 30.2
← RUTG by 28tieOSU by 28 →
0.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 54.5 · model 54.0
Mkt 54.5
Model 54.0
24 pts6096 pts
2.1% of FBS games finish between 54.5 and 54.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
