The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
92%Washington HuskiesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WASH by 23.9market WASH by 14.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.8 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington Huskies at 92% to win, with the market at WASH by 14.5.
WASH has the advantage in passing: WASH passing ranks #37, PUR defends it at #131; the other way PUR #115 into WASH's #50.
WASH has the advantage in rushing: WASH rushing ranks #9, PUR defends it at #111; the other way PUR #57 into WASH's #9.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours PUR. PUR sack rate ranks #28, WASH defends it at #97; the other way WASH #114 into PUR's #36. The pick still lands on WASH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: WASH has the better last five games by 40.8 points a game (WASH +16.6, PUR -24.2).
Home field is with WASH, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it WASH by 23.9 against a market WASH by 14.5: 9.4 points of daylight in WASH's favour. The model's total is 46.8 against a line of 51.5: 4.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WASH by 23.9 · market WASH by 14.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH passing ranks #37, PUR defends it at #131; the other way PUR #115 into WASH's #50.
Rushing game
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH rushing ranks #9, PUR defends it at #111; the other way PUR #57 into WASH's #9.
Third down & red zone
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH points / scoring opportunity ranks #15, PUR defends it at #106; the other way PUR #119 into WASH's #15.
Big plays
WASH
Slight advantage
WASH pass explosiveness ranks #113, PUR defends it at #101; the other way PUR #117 into WASH's #48.
Pass protection & rush
PUR
Clear advantage
PUR sack rate ranks #28, WASH defends it at #97; the other way WASH #114 into PUR's #36.
Ball security
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH turnovers / game ranks #44, PUR defends it at #127; the other way PUR #121 into WASH's #45.
Form (last 5)
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH +16.6 per game over the last five, PUR −24.2.
Market
WASH
Clear advantage
Consensus has WASH by 14.5; the model says WASH by 23.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WASH by 14.5 · model WASH by 23.9
Mkt WASH 14.5
Model WASH 23.9
← PUR by 28tieWASH by 28 →
11.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 46.8
Mkt 51.5
Model 46.8
24 pts6096 pts
12.7% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 46.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
