The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Liberty FlamesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LIB by 1.9market LIB by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.4 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Liberty Flames at 54% to win, with the market at LIB by 2.5.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours FIU. FIU sack rate ranks #64, LIB defends it at #107; the other way LIB #100 into FIU's #76. The pick still lands on LIB because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: FIU has the better last five games by 7.2 points a game (FIU +8.4, LIB +1.2).
Home field is with FIU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it LIB by 1.9 against a market LIB by 2.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 55.4 against a line of 51.5: 3.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LIB by 1.9 · market LIB by 2.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor FIU, but the model still picks LIB. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
FIU
Slight advantage
FIU passing ranks #84, LIB defends it at #69; the other way LIB #102 into FIU's #56.
Rushing game
FIU
Slight advantage
FIU rushing ranks #55, LIB defends it at #108; the other way LIB #40 into FIU's #63.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
FIU points / scoring opportunity ranks #35, LIB defends it at #57; the other way LIB #70 into FIU's #67.
Big plays
=
Even
FIU rush explosiveness ranks #6, LIB defends it at #96; the other way LIB #72 into FIU's #68.
Pass protection & rush
FIU
Clear advantage
FIU sack rate ranks #64, LIB defends it at #107; the other way LIB #100 into FIU's #76.
Ball security
FIU
Clear advantage
FIU turnovers / game ranks #109, LIB defends it at #82; the other way LIB #120 into FIU's #30.
Form (last 5)
FIU
Clear advantage
FIU +8.4 per game over the last five, LIB +1.2.
Market
LIB
Slight advantage
Consensus has LIB by 2.5; the model says LIB by 1.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket LIB by 2.5 · model LIB by 1.9
Mkt LIB 2.5
Model LIB 1.9
← LIB by 28tieFIU by 28 →
1.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 55.4
Mkt 51.5
Model 55.4
24 pts6096 pts
9.4% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 55.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
