The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
83%Tulane Green WaveStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TULN by 16.6market TULN by 16.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
63.8 pointsmarket 60.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tulane Green Wave at 83% to win, with the market at TULN by 16.5.
TULN has the advantage in rushing: TULN rushing ranks #70, FAU defends it at #132; the other way FAU #119 into TULN's #62.
TULN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: TULN third-down conversion ranks #44, FAU defends it at #125; the other way FAU #96 into TULN's #70.
Form: TULN has the better last five games by 17.6 points a game (TULN +8.8, FAU -8.8).
Home field is with TULN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TULN by 16.6 against a market TULN by 16.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 63.8 against a line of 60.5: 3.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TULN by 16.6 · market TULN by 16.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TULN
Slight advantage
TULN passing ranks #22, FAU defends it at #92; the other way FAU #54 into TULN's #67.
Rushing game
TULN
Clear advantage
TULN rushing ranks #70, FAU defends it at #132; the other way FAU #119 into TULN's #62.
Third down & red zone
TULN
Clear advantage
TULN third-down conversion ranks #44, FAU defends it at #125; the other way FAU #96 into TULN's #70.
Big plays
TULN
Slight advantage
TULN pass explosiveness ranks #75, FAU defends it at #79; the other way FAU #49 into TULN's #12.
Pass protection & rush
TULN
Clear advantage
TULN sack rate ranks #8, FAU defends it at #93; the other way FAU #19 into TULN's #29.
Ball security
TULN
Clear advantage
TULN turnovers / game ranks #62, FAU defends it at #131; the other way FAU #135 into TULN's #16.
Form (last 5)
TULN
Clear advantage
TULN +8.8 per game over the last five, FAU −8.8.
Market
TULN
Clear advantage
Consensus has TULN by 16.5; the model says TULN by 16.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TULN by 16.5 · model TULN by 16.6
Mkt TULN 16.5
Model TULN 16.6
← FAU by 28tieTULN by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 60.5 · model 63.8
Mkt 60.5
Model 63.8
24 pts6096 pts
6.7% of FBS games finish between 60.5 and 63.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
