The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
83%North Texas Mean GreenStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UNT by 16.2market UNT by 17.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
68.4 pointsmarket 68.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has North Texas Mean Green at 83% to win, with the market at UNT by 17.5.
UNT has the advantage in passing: UNT passing ranks #14, UAB defends it at #134; the other way UAB #103 into UNT's #29.
UNT has the advantage in rushing: UNT rushing ranks #3, UAB defends it at #126; the other way UAB #52 into UNT's #88.
Rest: UNT has 7 more days since its last game (UAB 7d, UNT 14d).
Form: UNT has the better last five games by 31.0 points a game (UAB -15.6, UNT +15.4).
Home field is with UAB, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it UNT by 16.2 against a market UNT by 17.5: 1.3 points of daylight in UAB's favour. The model's total is 68.4 against a line of 68.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UNT by 16.2 · market UNT by 17.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
UNT
Clear advantage
UNT passing ranks #14, UAB defends it at #134; the other way UAB #103 into UNT's #29.
Rushing game
UNT
Clear advantage
UNT rushing ranks #3, UAB defends it at #126; the other way UAB #52 into UNT's #88.
Third down & red zone
UNT
Clear advantage
UNT points / scoring opportunity ranks #4, UAB defends it at #134; the other way UAB #75 into UNT's #104.
Big plays
=
Even
UAB rush explosiveness ranks #16, UNT defends it at #91; the other way UNT #26 into UAB's #45.
Pass protection & rush
UNT
Slight advantage
UNT sack rate ranks #25, UAB defends it at #72; the other way UAB #94 into UNT's #96.
Ball security
UNT
Clear advantage
UNT turnovers / game ranks #84, UAB defends it at #123; the other way UAB #119 into UNT's #6.
Form (last 5)
UNT
Clear advantage
UAB −15.6 per game over the last five, UNT +15.4.
Market
UNT
Clear advantage
Consensus has UNT by 17.5; the model says UNT by 16.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UNT by 17.5 · model UNT by 16.2
Mkt UNT 17.5
Model UNT 16.2
← UNT by 28tieUAB by 28 →
1.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 68.5 · model 68.4
Mkt 68.5
Model 68.4
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
