The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
69%North Carolina Tar HeelsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UNC by 8.6market UNC by 8.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
39.1 pointsmarket 41.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has North Carolina Tar Heels at 69% to win, with the market at UNC by 8.5.
UNC has the advantage in passing: UNC passing ranks #68, STAN defends it at #116; the other way STAN #94 into UNC's #65.
Counterpoint: rushing favours STAN. STAN rushing ranks #124, UNC defends it at #98; the other way UNC #123 into STAN's #18. The pick still lands on UNC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: UNC has the better last five games by 7.8 points a game (UNC -4.8, STAN -12.6).
Home field is with UNC, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UNC by 8.6 against a market UNC by 8.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 39.1 against a line of 41.5: 2.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UNC by 8.6 · market UNC by 8.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
UNC
Clear advantage
UNC passing ranks #68, STAN defends it at #116; the other way STAN #94 into UNC's #65.
Rushing game
STAN
Clear advantage
STAN rushing ranks #124, UNC defends it at #98; the other way UNC #123 into STAN's #18.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
UNC points / scoring opportunity ranks #107, STAN defends it at #52; the other way STAN #121 into UNC's #61.
Big plays
=
Even
STAN rush explosiveness ranks #133, UNC defends it at #92; the other way UNC #131 into STAN's #32.
Pass protection & rush
UNC
Clear advantage
UNC sack rate ranks #66, STAN defends it at #105; the other way STAN #127 into UNC's #31.
Ball security
=
Even
UNC turnovers / game ranks #69, STAN defends it at #94; the other way STAN #90 into UNC's #100.
Form (last 5)
UNC
Clear advantage
UNC −4.8 per game over the last five, STAN −12.6.
Market
UNC
Clear advantage
Consensus has UNC by 8.5; the model says UNC by 8.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UNC by 8.5 · model UNC by 8.6
Mkt UNC 8.5
Model UNC 8.6
← STAN by 28tieUNC by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 39.1
Mkt 41.5
Model 39.1
24 pts6096 pts
5.1% of FBS games finish between 41.5 and 39.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
