The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
57%Rutgers Scarlet KnightsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
RUTG by 3.1market RUTG by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.6 pointsmarket 56.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Rutgers Scarlet Knights at 57% to win, with the market at RUTG by 1.5.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours MD. MD sack rate ranks #2, RUTG defends it at #126; the other way RUTG #123 into MD's #66. The pick still lands on RUTG because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: RUTG has the better last five games by 14.4 points a game (RUTG -8.2, MD -22.6).
Home field is with RUTG, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it RUTG by 3.1 against a market RUTG by 1.5: 1.6 points of daylight in RUTG's favour. The model's total is 56.6 against a line of 56.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model RUTG by 3.1 · market RUTG by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor MD, but the model still picks RUTG. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
MD
Clear advantage
MD passing ranks #72, RUTG defends it at #127; the other way RUTG #32 into MD's #25.
Rushing game
MD
Slight advantage
MD rushing ranks #93, RUTG defends it at #133; the other way RUTG #79 into MD's #89.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
RUTG third-down conversion ranks #41, MD defends it at #102; the other way MD #99 into RUTG's #84.
Big plays
MD
Slight advantage
MD rush explosiveness ranks #44, RUTG defends it at #130; the other way RUTG #116 into MD's #35.
Pass protection & rush
MD
Clear advantage
MD sack rate ranks #2, RUTG defends it at #126; the other way RUTG #123 into MD's #66.
Ball security
MD
Slight advantage
MD turnovers / game ranks #60, RUTG defends it at #112; the other way RUTG #17 into MD's #20.
Form (last 5)
RUTG
Clear advantage
RUTG −8.2 per game over the last five, MD −22.6.
Market
RUTG
Slight advantage
Consensus has RUTG by 1.5; the model says RUTG by 3.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket RUTG by 1.5 · model RUTG by 3.1
Mkt RUTG 1.5
Model RUTG 3.1
← MD by 28tieRUTG by 28 →
6.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 56.5 · model 56.6
Mkt 56.5
Model 56.6
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
