The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Rice OwlsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
RICE by 1.7market UAB by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
58.8 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Rice Owls at 54% to win, with the market at UAB by 1.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: UAB has the better last five games by 10.2 points a game (RICE -25.8, UAB -15.6).
Home field is with RICE, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it RICE by 1.7 against a market UAB by 1.5: 3.2 points of daylight in RICE's favour. The model's total is 58.8 against a line of 51.5: 7.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model RICE by 1.7 · market UAB by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor UAB, but the model still picks RICE. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
RICE passing ranks #121, UAB defends it at #134; the other way UAB #103 into RICE's #115.
Rushing game
=
Even
UAB rushing ranks #52, RICE defends it at #107; the other way RICE #92 into UAB's #126.
Third down & red zone
UAB
Slight advantage
UAB third-down conversion ranks #20, RICE defends it at #114; the other way RICE #116 into UAB's #133.
Big plays
UAB
Slight advantage
UAB rush explosiveness ranks #16, RICE defends it at #132; the other way RICE #50 into UAB's #45.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
RICE sack rate ranks #122, UAB defends it at #72; the other way UAB #94 into RICE's #42.
Ball security
RICE
Clear advantage
RICE turnovers / game ranks #12, UAB defends it at #123; the other way UAB #119 into RICE's #132.
Form (last 5)
UAB
Clear advantage
RICE −25.8 per game over the last five, UAB −15.6.
Market
UAB
Slight advantage
Consensus has UAB by 1.5; the model says RICE by 1.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UAB by 1.5 · model RICE by 1.7
Mkt UAB 1.5
Model RICE 1.7
← UAB by 28tieRICE by 28 →
2.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 58.8
Mkt 51.5
Model 58.8
24 pts6096 pts
15.7% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 58.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
