The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
76%Army Black KnightsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ARMY by 12.4market ARMY by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.4 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Army Black Knights at 76% to win, with the market at ARMY by 7.
ARMY has the advantage in big plays: ARMY pass explosiveness ranks #1, TEM defends it at #113; the other way TEM #86 into ARMY's #38.
ARMY has the advantage in rushing: ARMY rushing ranks #69, TEM defends it at #113; the other way TEM #71 into ARMY's #75.
Form: ARMY has the better last five games by 21.8 points a game (ARMY +5.4, TEM -16.4).
Home field is with ARMY, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ARMY by 12.4 against a market ARMY by 7: 5.4 points of daylight in ARMY's favour. The model's total is 46.4 against a line of 45.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ARMY by 12.4 · market ARMY by 7
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ARMY
Slight advantage
ARMY passing ranks #28, TEM defends it at #121; the other way TEM #24 into ARMY's #78.
Rushing game
ARMY
Slight advantage
ARMY rushing ranks #69, TEM defends it at #113; the other way TEM #71 into ARMY's #75.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
TEM third-down conversion ranks #91, ARMY defends it at #121; the other way ARMY #52 into TEM's #72.
Big plays
ARMY
Clear advantage
ARMY pass explosiveness ranks #1, TEM defends it at #113; the other way TEM #86 into ARMY's #38.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
ARMY sack rate ranks #17, TEM defends it at #102; the other way TEM #52 into ARMY's #132.
Ball security
=
Even
TEM turnovers / game ranks #2, ARMY defends it at #74; the other way ARMY #10 into TEM's #72.
Form (last 5)
ARMY
Clear advantage
ARMY +5.4 per game over the last five, TEM −16.4.
Market
ARMY
Clear advantage
Consensus has ARMY by 7; the model says ARMY by 12.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ARMY by 7 · model ARMY by 12.4
Mkt ARMY 7
Model ARMY 12.4
← TEM by 28tieARMY by 28 →
6.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 7.5% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 46.4
Mkt 45.5
Model 46.4
24 pts6096 pts
1.3% of FBS games finish between 45.5 and 46.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
