The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
73%Indiana HoosiersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
IU by 10.4market IU by 14.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
61.9 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Indiana Hoosiers at 73% to win, with the market at IU by 14.5.
IU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: IU third-down conversion ranks #1, PSU defends it at #93; the other way PSU #33 into IU's #8.
IU has the advantage in rushing: IU rushing ranks #26, PSU defends it at #71; the other way PSU #28 into IU's #3.
Counterpoint: big plays favours PSU. PSU rush explosiveness ranks #53, IU defends it at #83; the other way IU #102 into PSU's #60. The pick still lands on IU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: IU has the better last five games by 14.6 points a game (PSU +11.6, IU +26.2).
Home field is with PSU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it IU by 10.4 against a market IU by 14.5: 4.1 points of daylight in PSU's favour. The model's total is 61.9 against a line of 49.5: 12.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model IU by 10.4 · market IU by 14.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
IU
Slight advantage
IU passing ranks #4, PSU defends it at #32; the other way PSU #58 into IU's #43.
Rushing game
IU
Clear advantage
IU rushing ranks #26, PSU defends it at #71; the other way PSU #28 into IU's #3.
Third down & red zone
IU
Clear advantage
IU third-down conversion ranks #1, PSU defends it at #93; the other way PSU #33 into IU's #8.
Big plays
PSU
Slight advantage
PSU rush explosiveness ranks #53, IU defends it at #83; the other way IU #102 into PSU's #60.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
IU sack rate ranks #63, PSU defends it at #24; the other way PSU #69 into IU's #6.
Ball security
IU
Clear advantage
IU turnovers / game ranks #3, PSU defends it at #104; the other way PSU #7 into IU's #13.
Form (last 5)
IU
Clear advantage
PSU +11.6 per game over the last five, IU +26.2.
Market
IU
Clear advantage
Consensus has IU by 14.5; the model says IU by 10.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket IU by 14.5 · model IU by 10.4
Mkt IU 14.5
Model IU 10.4
← IU by 28tiePSU by 28 →
4.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 61.9
Mkt 49.5
Model 61.9
24 pts6096 pts
26.9% of FBS games finish between 49.5 and 61.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
