The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Ohio BobcatsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
OHIO by 1.9market OHIO by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.3 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ohio Bobcats at 54% to win, with the market at OHIO by 2.5.
OHIO has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: OHIO third-down conversion ranks #42, M-OH defends it at #106; the other way M-OH #109 into OHIO's #21.
OHIO has the advantage in passing: OHIO passing ranks #61, M-OH defends it at #48; the other way M-OH #106 into OHIO's #47.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours M-OH. M-OH turnovers / game ranks #37, OHIO defends it at #63; the other way OHIO #92 into M-OH's #46. The pick still lands on OHIO because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: OHIO has the better last five games by 9.6 points a game (OHIO +8.0, M-OH -1.6).
Home field is with OHIO, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it OHIO by 1.9 against a market OHIO by 2.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 52.3 against a line of 50.5: 1.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model OHIO by 1.9 · market OHIO by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
OHIO
Slight advantage
OHIO passing ranks #61, M-OH defends it at #48; the other way M-OH #106 into OHIO's #47.
Rushing game
OHIO
Slight advantage
OHIO rushing ranks #24, M-OH defends it at #47; the other way M-OH #86 into OHIO's #69.
Third down & red zone
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO third-down conversion ranks #42, M-OH defends it at #106; the other way M-OH #109 into OHIO's #21.
Big plays
M-OH
Slight advantage
M-OH pass explosiveness ranks #27, OHIO defends it at #87; the other way OHIO #118 into M-OH's #27.
Pass protection & rush
M-OH
Clear advantage
M-OH sack rate ranks #95, OHIO defends it at #78; the other way OHIO #105 into M-OH's #23.
Ball security
M-OH
Clear advantage
M-OH turnovers / game ranks #37, OHIO defends it at #63; the other way OHIO #92 into M-OH's #46.
Form (last 5)
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO +8.0 per game over the last five, M-OH −1.6.
Market
OHIO
Slight advantage
Consensus has OHIO by 2.5; the model says OHIO by 1.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket OHIO by 2.5 · model OHIO by 1.9
Mkt OHIO 2.5
Model OHIO 1.9
← M-OH by 28tieOHIO by 28 →
1.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 52.3
Mkt 50.5
Model 52.3
24 pts6096 pts
6.0% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 52.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
