The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
79%San Diego State AztecsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SDSU by 13.7market SDSU by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
33.5 pointsmarket 42.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San Diego State Aztecs at 79% to win, with the market at SDSU by 10.
SDSU has the advantage in rushing: SDSU rushing ranks #35, WYO defends it at #64; the other way WYO #104 into SDSU's #51.
SDSU has the advantage in big plays: SDSU pass explosiveness ranks #20, WYO defends it at #91; the other way WYO #131 into SDSU's #16.
Home field is with SDSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SDSU by 13.7 against a market SDSU by 10: 3.7 points of daylight in SDSU's favour. The model's total is 33.5 against a line of 42.5: 9.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SDSU by 13.7 · market SDSU by 10
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
SDSU
Slight advantage
SDSU passing ranks #125, WYO defends it at #36; the other way WYO #123 into SDSU's #2.
Rushing game
SDSU
Clear advantage
SDSU rushing ranks #35, WYO defends it at #64; the other way WYO #104 into SDSU's #51.
Third down & red zone
SDSU
Slight advantage
SDSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #90, WYO defends it at #11; the other way WYO #126 into SDSU's #3.
Big plays
SDSU
Slight advantage
SDSU pass explosiveness ranks #20, WYO defends it at #91; the other way WYO #131 into SDSU's #16.
Pass protection & rush
SDSU
Slight advantage
SDSU sack rate ranks #77, WYO defends it at #124; the other way WYO #26 into SDSU's #25.
Ball security
SDSU
Clear advantage
SDSU turnovers / game ranks #54, WYO defends it at #73; the other way WYO #101 into SDSU's #54.
Form (last 5)
SDSU
Slight advantage
SDSU −1.6 per game over the last five, WYO −7.2.
Market
SDSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has SDSU by 10; the model says SDSU by 13.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket SDSU by 10 · model SDSU by 13.7
Mkt SDSU 10
Model SDSU 13.7
← WYO by 28tieSDSU by 28 →
2.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 4.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 42.5 · model 33.5
Mkt 42.5
Model 33.5
24 pts6096 pts
15.9% of FBS games finish between 42.5 and 33.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
