The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
56%Colorado BuffaloesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
COLO by 2.4market ARIZ by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
57.1 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Colorado Buffaloes at 56% to win, with the market at ARIZ by 4.
Counterpoint: passing favours ARIZ. ARIZ passing ranks #60, COLO defends it at #123; the other way COLO #99 into ARIZ's #16. The pick still lands on COLO because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: ARIZ has 7 more days since its last game (COLO 7d, ARIZ 14d).
Form: ARIZ has the better last five games by 33.6 points a game (COLO -24.6, ARIZ +9.0).
Home field is with COLO, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it COLO by 2.4 against a market ARIZ by 4: 6.4 points of daylight in COLO's favour. The model's total is 57.1 against a line of 52.5: 4.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model COLO by 2.4 · market ARIZ by 4
ⓘMost of these areas favor ARIZ, but the model still picks COLO. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
ARIZ
Clear advantage
ARIZ passing ranks #60, COLO defends it at #123; the other way COLO #99 into ARIZ's #16.
Rushing game
ARIZ
Slight advantage
ARIZ rushing ranks #45, COLO defends it at #58; the other way COLO #98 into ARIZ's #68.
Third down & red zone
ARIZ
Slight advantage
ARIZ points / scoring opportunity ranks #78, COLO defends it at #102; the other way COLO #94 into ARIZ's #44.
Big plays
=
Even
COLO pass explosiveness ranks #9, ARIZ defends it at #100; the other way ARIZ #92 into COLO's #131.
Pass protection & rush
–
—
not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
ARIZ
Clear advantage
ARIZ turnovers / game ranks #26, COLO defends it at #69; the other way COLO #88 into ARIZ's #1.
Form (last 5)
ARIZ
Clear advantage
COLO −24.6 per game over the last five, ARIZ +9.0.
Market
ARIZ
Clear advantage
Consensus has ARIZ by 4; the model says COLO by 2.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ARIZ by 4 · model COLO by 2.4
Mkt ARIZ 4
Model COLO 2.4
← ARIZ by 28tieCOLO by 28 →
10.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 4, a number 3.4% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 57.1
Mkt 52.5
Model 57.1
24 pts6096 pts
10.5% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 57.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
