The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
56%Western Michigan BroncosLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WMU by 2.7market WMU by 6
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
39.7 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Western Michigan Broncos at 56% to win, with the market at WMU by 6.
WMU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: WMU third-down conversion ranks #62, CMU defends it at #87; the other way CMU #115 into WMU's #12.
Counterpoint: big plays favours CMU. CMU rush explosiveness ranks #79, WMU defends it at #103; the other way WMU #98 into CMU's #29. The pick still lands on WMU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: WMU has the better last five games by 18.4 points a game (WMU +15.0, CMU -3.4).
Home field is with WMU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it WMU by 2.7 against a market WMU by 6: 3.3 points of daylight in CMU's favour. The model's total is 39.7 against a line of 43.5: 3.8 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WMU by 2.7 · market WMU by 6
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CMU
Clear advantage
CMU passing ranks #25, WMU defends it at #11; the other way WMU #119 into CMU's #39.
Rushing game
=
Even
WMU rushing ranks #51, CMU defends it at #12; the other way CMU #82 into WMU's #31.
Third down & red zone
WMU
Slight advantage
WMU third-down conversion ranks #62, CMU defends it at #87; the other way CMU #115 into WMU's #12.
Big plays
CMU
Clear advantage
CMU rush explosiveness ranks #79, WMU defends it at #103; the other way WMU #98 into CMU's #29.
Pass protection & rush
WMU
Clear advantage
WMU sack rate ranks #92, CMU defends it at #85; the other way CMU #120 into WMU's #7.
Ball security
WMU
Slight advantage
WMU turnovers / game ranks #38, CMU defends it at #31; the other way CMU #64 into WMU's #24.
Form (last 5)
WMU
Clear advantage
WMU +15.0 per game over the last five, CMU −3.4.
Market
WMU
Clear advantage
Consensus has WMU by 6; the model says WMU by 2.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WMU by 6 · model WMU by 2.7
Mkt WMU 6
Model WMU 2.7
← CMU by 28tieWMU by 28 →
8.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 6, a number 2.8% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 39.7
Mkt 43.5
Model 39.7
24 pts6096 pts
8.1% of FBS games finish between 43.5 and 39.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
