The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
75%Old Dominion MonarchsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ODU by 11.7market ODU by 16.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
59.5 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Old Dominion Monarchs at 75% to win, with the market at ODU by 16.5.
ODU has the advantage in passing: ODU passing ranks #19, ULM defends it at #103; the other way ULM #77 into ODU's #8.
ODU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: ODU third-down conversion ranks #50, ULM defends it at #108; the other way ULM #123 into ODU's #26.
Form: ODU has the better last five games by 41.8 points a game (ULM -17.0, ODU +24.8).
Home field is with ULM, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ODU by 11.7 against a market ODU by 16.5: 4.8 points of daylight in ULM's favour. The model's total is 59.5 against a line of 55.5: 4.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ODU by 11.7 · market ODU by 16.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ODU
Clear advantage
ODU passing ranks #19, ULM defends it at #103; the other way ULM #77 into ODU's #8.
Rushing game
ODU
Clear advantage
ODU rushing ranks #56, ULM defends it at #67; the other way ULM #103 into ODU's #14.
Third down & red zone
ODU
Clear advantage
ODU third-down conversion ranks #50, ULM defends it at #108; the other way ULM #123 into ODU's #26.
Big plays
ODU
Slight advantage
ODU pass explosiveness ranks #6, ULM defends it at #114; the other way ULM #7 into ODU's #31.
Pass protection & rush
ODU
Clear advantage
ODU sack rate ranks #47, ULM defends it at #44; the other way ULM #85 into ODU's #11.
Ball security
ODU
Clear advantage
ODU turnovers / game ranks #127, ULM defends it at #129; the other way ULM #107 into ODU's #7.
Form (last 5)
ODU
Clear advantage
ULM −17.0 per game over the last five, ODU +24.8.
Market
ODU
Clear advantage
Consensus has ODU by 16.5; the model says ODU by 11.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ODU by 16.5 · model ODU by 11.7
Mkt ODU 16.5
Model ODU 11.7
← ODU by 28tieULM by 28 →
4.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 59.5
Mkt 55.5
Model 59.5
24 pts6096 pts
9.4% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 59.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
