The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
74%Pittsburgh PanthersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PITT by 11.3market PITT by 13.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
54.7 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Pittsburgh Panthers at 74% to win, with the market at PITT by 13.5.
PITT has the advantage in passing: PITT passing ranks #46, STAN defends it at #116; the other way STAN #94 into PITT's #17.
PITT has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: PITT third-down conversion ranks #120, STAN defends it at #104; the other way STAN #90 into PITT's #15.
Home field is with STAN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it PITT by 11.3 against a market PITT by 13.5: 2.2 points of daylight in STAN's favour. The model's total is 54.7 against a line of 51.5: 3.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PITT by 11.3 · market PITT by 13.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
PITT
Clear advantage
PITT passing ranks #46, STAN defends it at #116; the other way STAN #94 into PITT's #17.
Rushing game
PITT
Slight advantage
PITT rushing ranks #111, STAN defends it at #18; the other way STAN #124 into PITT's #6.
Third down & red zone
PITT
Slight advantage
PITT third-down conversion ranks #120, STAN defends it at #104; the other way STAN #90 into PITT's #15.
Big plays
PITT
Slight advantage
PITT rush explosiveness ranks #55, STAN defends it at #32; the other way STAN #133 into PITT's #63.
Pass protection & rush
PITT
Clear advantage
PITT sack rate ranks #116, STAN defends it at #105; the other way STAN #127 into PITT's #53.
Ball security
PITT
Slight advantage
PITT turnovers / game ranks #124, STAN defends it at #94; the other way STAN #90 into PITT's #34.
Form (last 5)
PITT
Clear advantage
STAN −12.6 per game over the last five, PITT −6.0.
Market
PITT
Clear advantage
Consensus has PITT by 13.5; the model says PITT by 11.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket PITT by 13.5 · model PITT by 11.3
Mkt PITT 13.5
Model PITT 11.3
← PITT by 28tieSTAN by 28 →
1.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 54.7
Mkt 51.5
Model 54.7
24 pts6096 pts
5.8% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 54.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
