The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
76%Louisville CardinalsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LOU by 12.2market LOU by 10.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
57.4 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Louisville Cardinals at 76% to win, with the market at LOU by 10.5.
LOU has the advantage in passing: LOU passing ranks #104, VT defends it at #130; the other way VT #116 into LOU's #5.
LOU has the advantage in rushing: LOU rushing ranks #29, VT defends it at #112; the other way VT #31 into LOU's #35.
Form: LOU has the better last five games by 14.2 points a game (VT -12.2, LOU +2.0).
Home field is with VT, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it LOU by 12.2 against a market LOU by 10.5: 1.7 points of daylight in LOU's favour. The model's total is 57.4 against a line of 52.5: 4.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LOU by 12.2 · market LOU by 10.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
LOU
Clear advantage
LOU passing ranks #104, VT defends it at #130; the other way VT #116 into LOU's #5.
Rushing game
LOU
Clear advantage
LOU rushing ranks #29, VT defends it at #112; the other way VT #31 into LOU's #35.
Third down & red zone
LOU
Clear advantage
LOU points / scoring opportunity ranks #76, VT defends it at #125; the other way VT #69 into LOU's #43.
Big plays
=
Even
VT pass explosiveness ranks #21, LOU defends it at #7; the other way LOU #130 into VT's #56.
Pass protection & rush
LOU
Clear advantage
LOU sack rate ranks #60, VT defends it at #110; the other way VT #110 into LOU's #28.
Ball security
LOU
Clear advantage
LOU turnovers / game ranks #78, VT defends it at #135; the other way VT #70 into LOU's #38.
Form (last 5)
LOU
Clear advantage
VT −12.2 per game over the last five, LOU +2.0.
Market
LOU
Clear advantage
Consensus has LOU by 10.5; the model says LOU by 12.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket LOU by 10.5 · model LOU by 12.2
Mkt LOU 10.5
Model LOU 12.2
← LOU by 28tieVT by 28 →
1.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 57.4
Mkt 52.5
Model 57.4
24 pts6096 pts
10.5% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 57.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
