The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
79%Louisiana Tech BulldogsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LT by 13.7market LT by 16.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.2 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at 79% to win, with the market at LT by 16.5.
LT has the advantage in passing: LT passing ranks #91, SHSU defends it at #117; the other way SHSU #131 into LT's #30.
LT has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: LT third-down conversion ranks #55, SHSU defends it at #119; the other way SHSU #135 into LT's #64.
Rest: SHSU has 6 more days since its last game (LT 10d, SHSU 16d).
Form: LT has the better last five games by 17.8 points a game (LT +0.2, SHSU -17.6).
Home field is with LT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LT by 13.7 against a market LT by 16.5: 2.8 points of daylight in SHSU's favour. The model's total is 47.2 against a line of 47.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LT by 13.7 · market LT by 16.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
LT
Clear advantage
LT passing ranks #91, SHSU defends it at #117; the other way SHSU #131 into LT's #30.
Rushing game
LT
Clear advantage
LT rushing ranks #50, SHSU defends it at #83; the other way SHSU #99 into LT's #41.
Third down & red zone
LT
Clear advantage
LT third-down conversion ranks #55, SHSU defends it at #119; the other way SHSU #135 into LT's #64.
Big plays
=
Even
SHSU rush explosiveness ranks #19, LT defends it at #112; the other way LT #33 into SHSU's #67.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
SHSU sack rate ranks #118, LT defends it at #118; the other way LT #107 into SHSU's #86.
Ball security
LT
Slight advantage
LT turnovers / game ranks #74, SHSU defends it at #40; the other way SHSU #82 into LT's #9.
Form (last 5)
LT
Clear advantage
LT +0.2 per game over the last five, SHSU −17.6.
Market
LT
Clear advantage
Consensus has LT by 16.5; the model says LT by 13.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket LT by 16.5 · model LT by 13.7
Mkt LT 16.5
Model LT 13.7
← SHSU by 28tieLT by 28 →
4.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 47.2
Mkt 47.5
Model 47.2
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
