The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%Northern Illinois HuskiesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NIU by 2.4market NIU by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.8 pointsmarket 41.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Northern Illinois Huskies at 55% to win, with the market at NIU by 6.5.
NIU has the advantage in big plays: NIU pass explosiveness ranks #32, BALL defends it at #71; the other way BALL #64 into NIU's #54.
NIU has the advantage in passing: NIU passing ranks #135, BALL defends it at #94; the other way BALL #130 into NIU's #62.
Form: NIU has the better last five games by 14.4 points a game (NIU -0.6, BALL -15.0).
Home field is with NIU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NIU by 2.4 against a market NIU by 6.5: 4.1 points of daylight in BALL's favour. The model's total is 43.8 against a line of 41.5: 2.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NIU by 2.4 · market NIU by 6.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NIU
Slight advantage
NIU passing ranks #135, BALL defends it at #94; the other way BALL #130 into NIU's #62.
Rushing game
=
Even
NIU rushing ranks #73, BALL defends it at #91; the other way BALL #102 into NIU's #109.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
NIU points / scoring opportunity ranks #120, BALL defends it at #59; the other way BALL #131 into NIU's #50.
Big plays
NIU
Slight advantage
NIU pass explosiveness ranks #32, BALL defends it at #71; the other way BALL #64 into NIU's #54.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
NIU sack rate ranks #93, BALL defends it at #98; the other way BALL #134 into NIU's #122.
Ball security
NIU
Clear advantage
NIU turnovers / game ranks #16, BALL defends it at #92; the other way BALL #80 into NIU's #93.
Form (last 5)
NIU
Clear advantage
NIU −0.6 per game over the last five, BALL −15.0.
Market
NIU
Clear advantage
Consensus has NIU by 6.5; the model says NIU by 2.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket NIU by 6.5 · model NIU by 2.4
Mkt NIU 6.5
Model NIU 2.4
← BALL by 28tieNIU by 28 →
9.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 43.8
Mkt 41.5
Model 43.8
24 pts6096 pts
3.0% of FBS games finish between 41.5 and 43.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
