The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
73%UConn HuskiesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CONN by 10.3market CONN by 10.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.9 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UConn Huskies at 73% to win, with the market at CONN by 10.5.
CONN has the advantage in passing: CONN passing ranks #5, RICE defends it at #115; the other way RICE #121 into CONN's #72.
CONN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: CONN third-down conversion ranks #60, RICE defends it at #114; the other way RICE #116 into CONN's #50.
Rest: RICE has 7 more days since its last game (RICE 14d, CONN 7d).
Form: CONN has the better last five games by 27.8 points a game (RICE -25.8, CONN +2.0).
Home field is with RICE, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it CONN by 10.3 against a market CONN by 10.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 50.9 against a line of 48.5: 2.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CONN by 10.3 · market CONN by 10.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CONN
Clear advantage
CONN passing ranks #5, RICE defends it at #115; the other way RICE #121 into CONN's #72.
Rushing game
CONN
Slight advantage
CONN rushing ranks #23, RICE defends it at #107; the other way RICE #92 into CONN's #124.
Third down & red zone
CONN
Clear advantage
CONN third-down conversion ranks #60, RICE defends it at #114; the other way RICE #116 into CONN's #50.
Big plays
CONN
Clear advantage
CONN rush explosiveness ranks #34, RICE defends it at #132; the other way RICE #50 into CONN's #66.
Pass protection & rush
CONN
Clear advantage
CONN sack rate ranks #11, RICE defends it at #42; the other way RICE #122 into CONN's #9.
Ball security
CONN
Clear advantage
CONN turnovers / game ranks #1, RICE defends it at #132; the other way RICE #12 into CONN's #65.
Form (last 5)
CONN
Clear advantage
RICE −25.8 per game over the last five, CONN +2.0.
Market
CONN
Clear advantage
Consensus has CONN by 10.5; the model says CONN by 10.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket CONN by 10.5 · model CONN by 10.3
Mkt CONN 10.5
Model CONN 10.3
← CONN by 28tieRICE by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 50.9
Mkt 48.5
Model 50.9
24 pts6096 pts
3.7% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 50.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
