The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
78%Buffalo BullsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BUFF by 13.4market BUFF by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.7 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Buffalo Bulls at 78% to win, with the market at BUFF by 10.
BUFF has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: BUFF points / scoring opportunity ranks #91, AKR defends it at #70; the other way AKR #111 into BUFF's #22.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours AKR. AKR turnovers / game ranks #86, BUFF defends it at #67; the other way BUFF #125 into AKR's #26. The pick still lands on BUFF because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: AKR has the better last five games by 9.6 points a game (BUFF -4.8, AKR +4.8).
Home field is with BUFF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BUFF by 13.4 against a market BUFF by 10: 3.4 points of daylight in BUFF's favour. The model's total is 48.7 against a line of 48.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BUFF by 13.4 · market BUFF by 10
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
BUFF passing ranks #96, AKR defends it at #68; the other way AKR #100 into BUFF's #70.
Rushing game
=
Even
AKR rushing ranks #116, BUFF defends it at #30; the other way BUFF #129 into AKR's #25.
Third down & red zone
BUFF
Slight advantage
BUFF points / scoring opportunity ranks #91, AKR defends it at #70; the other way AKR #111 into BUFF's #22.
Big plays
=
Even
BUFF rush explosiveness ranks #99, AKR defends it at #57; the other way AKR #125 into BUFF's #27.
Pass protection & rush
BUFF
Clear advantage
BUFF sack rate ranks #49, AKR defends it at #62; the other way AKR #109 into BUFF's #10.
Ball security
AKR
Clear advantage
AKR turnovers / game ranks #86, BUFF defends it at #67; the other way BUFF #125 into AKR's #26.
Form (last 5)
AKR
Clear advantage
BUFF −4.8 per game over the last five, AKR +4.8.
Market
BUFF
Clear advantage
Consensus has BUFF by 10; the model says BUFF by 13.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BUFF by 10 · model BUFF by 13.4
Mkt BUFF 10
Model BUFF 13.4
← AKR by 28tieBUFF by 28 →
2.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 4.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 48.7
Mkt 48.5
Model 48.7
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
