The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
69%Rutgers Scarlet KnightsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
RUTG by 8.6market PUR by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
61.7 pointsmarket 60.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Rutgers Scarlet Knights at 69% to win, with the market at PUR by 2.5.
RUTG has the advantage in passing: RUTG passing ranks #32, PUR defends it at #131; the other way PUR #115 into RUTG's #127.
RUTG has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: RUTG third-down conversion ranks #41, PUR defends it at #113; the other way PUR #86 into RUTG's #84.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours PUR. PUR sack rate ranks #28, RUTG defends it at #126; the other way RUTG #123 into PUR's #36. The pick still lands on RUTG because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: RUTG has the better last five games by 16.0 points a game (PUR -24.2, RUTG -8.2).
Home field is with PUR, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it RUTG by 8.6 against a market PUR by 2.5: 11.1 points of daylight in RUTG's favour. The model's total is 61.7 against a line of 60.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model RUTG by 8.6 · market PUR by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
RUTG
Clear advantage
RUTG passing ranks #32, PUR defends it at #131; the other way PUR #115 into RUTG's #127.
Rushing game
PUR
Slight advantage
PUR rushing ranks #57, RUTG defends it at #133; the other way RUTG #79 into PUR's #111.
Third down & red zone
RUTG
Slight advantage
RUTG third-down conversion ranks #41, PUR defends it at #113; the other way PUR #86 into RUTG's #84.
Big plays
PUR
Slight advantage
PUR rush explosiveness ranks #36, RUTG defends it at #130; the other way RUTG #116 into PUR's #17.
Pass protection & rush
PUR
Clear advantage
PUR sack rate ranks #28, RUTG defends it at #126; the other way RUTG #123 into PUR's #36.
Ball security
RUTG
Clear advantage
RUTG turnovers / game ranks #17, PUR defends it at #127; the other way PUR #121 into RUTG's #112.
Form (last 5)
RUTG
Clear advantage
PUR −24.2 per game over the last five, RUTG −8.2.
Market
PUR
Slight advantage
Consensus has PUR by 2.5; the model says RUTG by 8.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket PUR by 2.5 · model RUTG by 8.6
Mkt PUR 2.5
Model RUTG 8.6
← RUTG by 28tiePUR by 28 →
18.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 60.5 · model 61.7
Mkt 60.5
Model 61.7
24 pts6096 pts
2.0% of FBS games finish between 60.5 and 61.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
