The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Illinois Fighting IlliniLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ILL by 0.4market WASH by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.3 pointsmarket 54.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Illinois Fighting Illini at 51% to win, with the market at WASH by 3.5.
Counterpoint: rushing favours WASH. WASH rushing ranks #9, ILL defends it at #57; the other way ILL #85 into WASH's #9. The pick still lands on ILL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: ILL has 7 more days since its last game (WASH 7d, ILL 14d).
Form: WASH has the better last five games by 10.2 points a game (WASH +16.6, ILL +6.4).
Home field is with WASH, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ILL by 0.4 against a market WASH by 3.5: 3.9 points of daylight in ILL's favour. The model's total is 55.3 against a line of 54.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ILL by 0.4 · market WASH by 3.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor WASH, but the model still picks ILL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
WASH
Slight advantage
WASH passing ranks #37, ILL defends it at #107; the other way ILL #15 into WASH's #50.
Rushing game
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH rushing ranks #9, ILL defends it at #57; the other way ILL #85 into WASH's #9.
Third down & red zone
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH points / scoring opportunity ranks #15, ILL defends it at #124; the other way ILL #29 into WASH's #15.
Big plays
=
Even
WASH rush explosiveness ranks #35, ILL defends it at #41; the other way ILL #124 into WASH's #7.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
ILL sack rate ranks #115, WASH defends it at #97; the other way WASH #114 into ILL's #81.
Ball security
=
Even
ILL turnovers / game ranks #11, WASH defends it at #45; the other way WASH #44 into ILL's #76.
Form (last 5)
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH +16.6 per game over the last five, ILL +6.4.
Market
WASH
Clear advantage
Consensus has WASH by 3.5; the model says ILL by 0.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WASH by 3.5 · model ILL by 0.4
Mkt WASH 3.5
Model ILL 0.4
← ILL by 28tieWASH by 28 →
7.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 54.5 · model 55.3
Mkt 54.5
Model 55.3
24 pts6096 pts
3.6% of FBS games finish between 54.5 and 55.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
