The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
50%Louisiana Tech BulldogsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LT by 0.2market LT by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.1 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at 50% to win, with the market at LT by 5.5.
LT has the advantage in big plays: LT rush explosiveness ranks #33, WKU defends it at #125; the other way WKU #96 into LT's #112.
LT has the advantage in rushing: LT rushing ranks #50, WKU defends it at #50; the other way WKU #78 into LT's #41.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours WKU. WKU points / scoring opportunity ranks #30, LT defends it at #23; the other way LT #108 into WKU's #10. The pick still lands on LT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: LT has 5 more days since its last game (LT 12d, WKU 7d).
Form: WKU has the better last five games by 7.8 points a game (LT +0.2, WKU +8.0).
Home field is with LT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LT by 0.2 against a market LT by 5.5: 5.3 points of daylight in WKU's favour. The model's total is 42.1 against a line of 49.5: 7.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LT by 0.2 · market LT by 5.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
WKU passing ranks #74, LT defends it at #30; the other way LT #91 into WKU's #37.
Rushing game
LT
Slight advantage
LT rushing ranks #50, WKU defends it at #50; the other way WKU #78 into LT's #41.
Third down & red zone
WKU
Clear advantage
WKU points / scoring opportunity ranks #30, LT defends it at #23; the other way LT #108 into WKU's #10.
Big plays
LT
Slight advantage
LT rush explosiveness ranks #33, WKU defends it at #125; the other way WKU #96 into LT's #112.
Pass protection & rush
WKU
Slight advantage
WKU sack rate ranks #53, LT defends it at #118; the other way LT #107 into WKU's #119.
Ball security
LT
Clear advantage
LT turnovers / game ranks #74, WKU defends it at #96; the other way WKU #111 into LT's #9.
Form (last 5)
WKU
Clear advantage
LT +0.2 per game over the last five, WKU +8.0.
Market
LT
Clear advantage
Consensus has LT by 5.5; the model says LT by 0.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket LT by 5.5 · model LT by 0.2
Mkt LT 5.5
Model LT 0.2
← WKU by 28tieLT by 28 →
11.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 42.1
Mkt 49.5
Model 42.1
24 pts6096 pts
15.8% of FBS games finish between 49.5 and 42.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
