The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
59%Florida State SeminolesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
FSU by 3.8market FSU by 17.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.3 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Florida State Seminoles at 59% to win, with the market at FSU by 17.5.
FSU has the advantage in passing: FSU passing ranks #53, STAN defends it at #116; the other way STAN #94 into FSU's #58.
FSU has the advantage in big plays: FSU rush explosiveness ranks #40, STAN defends it at #32; the other way STAN #133 into FSU's #25.
Form: FSU has the better last five games by 15.0 points a game (STAN -12.6, FSU +2.4).
Home field is with STAN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it FSU by 3.8 against a market FSU by 17.5: 13.7 points of daylight in STAN's favour. The model's total is 56.3 against a line of 55.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model FSU by 3.8 · market FSU by 17.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
FSU
Clear advantage
FSU passing ranks #53, STAN defends it at #116; the other way STAN #94 into FSU's #58.
Rushing game
FSU
Slight advantage
FSU rushing ranks #12, STAN defends it at #18; the other way STAN #124 into FSU's #81.
Third down & red zone
FSU
Clear advantage
FSU third-down conversion ranks #8, STAN defends it at #104; the other way STAN #90 into FSU's #59.
Big plays
FSU
Clear advantage
FSU rush explosiveness ranks #40, STAN defends it at #32; the other way STAN #133 into FSU's #25.
Pass protection & rush
FSU
Clear advantage
FSU sack rate ranks #81, STAN defends it at #105; the other way STAN #127 into FSU's #14.
Ball security
=
Even
STAN turnovers / game ranks #90, FSU defends it at #80; the other way FSU #105 into STAN's #94.
Form (last 5)
FSU
Clear advantage
STAN −12.6 per game over the last five, FSU +2.4.
Market
FSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has FSU by 17.5; the model says FSU by 3.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket FSU by 17.5 · model FSU by 3.8
Mkt FSU 17.5
Model FSU 3.8
← FSU by 28tieSTAN by 28 →
16.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 56.3
Mkt 55.5
Model 56.3
24 pts6096 pts
1.5% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 56.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
