The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
57%Houston CougarsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HOU by 3.2market ARIZ by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.0 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Houston Cougars at 57% to win, with the market at ARIZ by 1.5.
HOU has the advantage in big plays: HOU pass explosiveness ranks #16, ARIZ defends it at #100; the other way ARIZ #92 into HOU's #52.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours ARIZ. ARIZ turnovers / game ranks #26, HOU defends it at #51; the other way HOU #39 into ARIZ's #1. The pick still lands on HOU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: ARIZ has the better last five games by 9.0 points a game (HOU +0.0, ARIZ +9.0).
Home field is with HOU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it HOU by 3.2 against a market ARIZ by 1.5: 4.7 points of daylight in HOU's favour. The model's total is 47.0 against a line of 47.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HOU by 3.2 · market ARIZ by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor ARIZ, but the model still picks HOU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
ARIZ passing ranks #60, HOU defends it at #54; the other way HOU #42 into ARIZ's #16.
Rushing game
ARIZ
Slight advantage
ARIZ rushing ranks #45, HOU defends it at #48; the other way HOU #125 into ARIZ's #68.
Third down & red zone
ARIZ
Slight advantage
ARIZ points / scoring opportunity ranks #78, HOU defends it at #94; the other way HOU #83 into ARIZ's #44.
Big plays
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU pass explosiveness ranks #16, ARIZ defends it at #100; the other way ARIZ #92 into HOU's #52.
Pass protection & rush
–
—
not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
ARIZ
Clear advantage
ARIZ turnovers / game ranks #26, HOU defends it at #51; the other way HOU #39 into ARIZ's #1.
Form (last 5)
ARIZ
Clear advantage
HOU 0.0 per game over the last five, ARIZ +9.0.
Market
ARIZ
Slight advantage
Consensus has ARIZ by 1.5; the model says HOU by 3.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ARIZ by 1.5 · model HOU by 3.2
Mkt ARIZ 1.5
Model HOU 3.2
← ARIZ by 28tieHOU by 28 →
9.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 47.0
Mkt 47.5
Model 47.0
24 pts6096 pts
2.1% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 47.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
