The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
82%Oregon DucksStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ORE by 15.8market ORE by 17.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
66.4 pointsmarket 62.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Oregon Ducks at 82% to win, with the market at ORE by 17.5.
ORE has the advantage in rushing: ORE rushing ranks #19, RUTG defends it at #133; the other way RUTG #79 into ORE's #37.
ORE has the advantage in passing: ORE passing ranks #16, RUTG defends it at #127; the other way RUTG #32 into ORE's #27.
Form: ORE has the better last five games by 14.8 points a game (RUTG -8.2, ORE +6.6).
Home field is with RUTG, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ORE by 15.8 against a market ORE by 17.5: 1.7 points of daylight in RUTG's favour. The model's total is 66.4 against a line of 62.5: 3.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ORE by 15.8 · market ORE by 17.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE passing ranks #16, RUTG defends it at #127; the other way RUTG #32 into ORE's #27.
Rushing game
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE rushing ranks #19, RUTG defends it at #133; the other way RUTG #79 into ORE's #37.
Third down & red zone
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE points / scoring opportunity ranks #36, RUTG defends it at #130; the other way RUTG #101 into ORE's #92.
Big plays
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE rush explosiveness ranks #37, RUTG defends it at #130; the other way RUTG #116 into ORE's #75.
Pass protection & rush
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE sack rate ranks #32, RUTG defends it at #126; the other way RUTG #123 into ORE's #63.
Ball security
ORE
Slight advantage
ORE turnovers / game ranks #34, RUTG defends it at #112; the other way RUTG #17 into ORE's #50.
Form (last 5)
ORE
Clear advantage
RUTG −8.2 per game over the last five, ORE +6.6.
Market
ORE
Clear advantage
Consensus has ORE by 17.5; the model says ORE by 15.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ORE by 17.5 · model ORE by 15.8
Mkt ORE 17.5
Model ORE 15.8
← ORE by 28tieRUTG by 28 →
1.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 62.5 · model 66.4
Mkt 62.5
Model 66.4
24 pts6096 pts
7.8% of FBS games finish between 62.5 and 66.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
