The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
68%Wake Forest Demon DeaconsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WAKE by 8.2market WAKE by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.1 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Wake Forest Demon Deacons at 68% to win, with the market at WAKE by 1.5.
WAKE has the advantage in big plays: WAKE pass explosiveness ranks #12, ORST defends it at #135; the other way ORST #132 into WAKE's #55.
WAKE has the advantage in passing: WAKE passing ranks #76, ORST defends it at #95; the other way ORST #122 into WAKE's #12.
Form: WAKE has the better last five games by 13.6 points a game (ORST -2.0, WAKE +11.6).
Home field is with ORST, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it WAKE by 8.2 against a market WAKE by 1.5: 6.7 points of daylight in WAKE's favour. The model's total is 50.1 against a line of 47.5: 2.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WAKE by 8.2 · market WAKE by 1.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
WAKE
Clear advantage
WAKE passing ranks #76, ORST defends it at #95; the other way ORST #122 into WAKE's #12.
Rushing game
WAKE
Clear advantage
WAKE rushing ranks #66, ORST defends it at #65; the other way ORST #120 into WAKE's #13.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
WAKE points / scoring opportunity ranks #112, ORST defends it at #46; the other way ORST #127 into WAKE's #31.
Big plays
WAKE
Clear advantage
WAKE pass explosiveness ranks #12, ORST defends it at #135; the other way ORST #132 into WAKE's #55.
Pass protection & rush
WAKE
Clear advantage
WAKE sack rate ranks #15, ORST defends it at #123; the other way ORST #73 into WAKE's #73.
Ball security
WAKE
Slight advantage
WAKE turnovers / game ranks #112, ORST defends it at #118; the other way ORST #116 into WAKE's #90.
Form (last 5)
WAKE
Clear advantage
ORST −2.0 per game over the last five, WAKE +11.6.
Market
WAKE
Slight advantage
Consensus has WAKE by 1.5; the model says WAKE by 8.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WAKE by 1.5 · model WAKE by 8.2
Mkt WAKE 1.5
Model WAKE 8.2
← WAKE by 28tieORST by 28 →
13.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 50.1
Mkt 47.5
Model 50.1
24 pts6096 pts
7.0% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 50.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
