The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
89%Army Black KnightsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ARMY by 21.0market ARMY by 17.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.5 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Army Black Knights at 89% to win, with the market at ARMY by 17.5.
ARMY has the advantage in rushing: ARMY rushing ranks #69, CLT defends it at #122; the other way CLT #135 into ARMY's #75.
ARMY has the advantage in passing: ARMY passing ranks #28, CLT defends it at #96; the other way CLT #117 into ARMY's #78.
Form: ARMY has the better last five games by 33.4 points a game (ARMY +5.4, CLT -28.0).
Home field is with ARMY, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ARMY by 21.0 against a market ARMY by 17.5: 3.5 points of daylight in ARMY's favour. The model's total is 49.5 against a line of 45.5: 4.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ARMY by 21.0 · market ARMY by 17.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ARMY
Clear advantage
ARMY passing ranks #28, CLT defends it at #96; the other way CLT #117 into ARMY's #78.
Rushing game
ARMY
Clear advantage
ARMY rushing ranks #69, CLT defends it at #122; the other way CLT #135 into ARMY's #75.
Third down & red zone
ARMY
Clear advantage
ARMY points / scoring opportunity ranks #66, CLT defends it at #114; the other way CLT #130 into ARMY's #75.
Big plays
=
Even
ARMY rush explosiveness ranks #78, CLT defends it at #12; the other way CLT #135 into ARMY's #26.
Pass protection & rush
ARMY
Clear advantage
ARMY sack rate ranks #17, CLT defends it at #127; the other way CLT #103 into ARMY's #132.
Ball security
ARMY
Clear advantage
ARMY turnovers / game ranks #10, CLT defends it at #68; the other way CLT #128 into ARMY's #74.
Form (last 5)
ARMY
Clear advantage
ARMY +5.4 per game over the last five, CLT −28.0.
Market
ARMY
Clear advantage
Consensus has ARMY by 17.5; the model says ARMY by 21.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ARMY by 17.5 · model ARMY by 21.0
Mkt ARMY 17.5
Model ARMY 21.0
← CLT by 28tieARMY by 28 →
3.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 49.5
Mkt 45.5
Model 49.5
24 pts6096 pts
8.8% of FBS games finish between 45.5 and 49.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
