The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
67%Oregon DucksSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ORE by 7.5market ORE by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
62.9 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Oregon Ducks at 67% to win, with the market at ORE by 7.
ORE has the advantage in big plays: ORE rush explosiveness ranks #37, IU defends it at #83; the other way IU #102 into ORE's #75.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours IU. IU points / scoring opportunity ranks #1, ORE defends it at #92; the other way ORE #36 into IU's #1. The pick still lands on ORE because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: IU has the better last five games by 19.6 points a game (ORE +6.6, IU +26.2).
Home field is with ORE, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ORE by 7.5 against a market ORE by 7: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 62.9 against a line of 51.5: 11.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ORE by 7.5 · market ORE by 7
ⓘMost of these areas favor IU, but the model still picks ORE. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
ORE passing ranks #16, IU defends it at #43; the other way IU #4 into ORE's #27.
Rushing game
IU
Slight advantage
IU rushing ranks #26, ORE defends it at #37; the other way ORE #19 into IU's #3.
Third down & red zone
IU
Clear advantage
IU points / scoring opportunity ranks #1, ORE defends it at #92; the other way ORE #36 into IU's #1.
Big plays
ORE
Slight advantage
ORE rush explosiveness ranks #37, IU defends it at #83; the other way IU #102 into ORE's #75.
Pass protection & rush
IU
Slight advantage
IU sack rate ranks #63, ORE defends it at #63; the other way ORE #32 into IU's #6.
Ball security
IU
Clear advantage
IU turnovers / game ranks #3, ORE defends it at #50; the other way ORE #34 into IU's #13.
Form (last 5)
IU
Clear advantage
ORE +6.6 per game over the last five, IU +26.2.
Market
ORE
Clear advantage
Consensus has ORE by 7; the model says ORE by 7.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ORE by 7 · model ORE by 7.5
Mkt ORE 7
Model ORE 7.5
← IU by 28tieORE by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 7, a number 7.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 62.9
Mkt 51.5
Model 62.9
24 pts6096 pts
24.3% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 62.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
