The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
64%Tulane Green WaveSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TULN by 6.2market TULN by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.9 pointsmarket 53.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tulane Green Wave at 64% to win, with the market at TULN by 7.
TULN has the advantage in big plays: TULN rush explosiveness ranks #118, ECU defends it at #115; the other way ECU #129 into TULN's #34.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours ECU. ECU third-down conversion ranks #15, TULN defends it at #70; the other way TULN #44 into ECU's #9. The pick still lands on TULN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: ECU has 2 more days since its last game (TULN 12d, ECU 14d).
Home field is with TULN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TULN by 6.2 against a market TULN by 7: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 45.9 against a line of 53.5: 7.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TULN by 6.2 · market TULN by 7
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
ECU passing ranks #30, TULN defends it at #67; the other way TULN #22 into ECU's #51.
Rushing game
ECU
Slight advantage
ECU rushing ranks #80, TULN defends it at #62; the other way TULN #70 into ECU's #8.
Third down & red zone
ECU
Clear advantage
ECU third-down conversion ranks #15, TULN defends it at #70; the other way TULN #44 into ECU's #9.
Big plays
TULN
Slight advantage
TULN rush explosiveness ranks #118, ECU defends it at #115; the other way ECU #129 into TULN's #34.
Pass protection & rush
TULN
Slight advantage
TULN sack rate ranks #8, ECU defends it at #69; the other way ECU #21 into TULN's #29.
Ball security
=
Even
ECU turnovers / game ranks #42, TULN defends it at #16; the other way TULN #62 into ECU's #14.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
TULN +8.8 per game over the last five, ECU +8.2.
Market
TULN
Clear advantage
Consensus has TULN by 7; the model says TULN by 6.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TULN by 7 · model TULN by 6.2
Mkt TULN 7
Model TULN 6.2
← ECU by 28tieTULN by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 7 and 6.2, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 7. The market is on 7, a number 7.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 53.5 · model 45.9
Mkt 53.5
Model 45.9
24 pts6096 pts
17.7% of FBS games finish between 53.5 and 45.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
