The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
59%Miami (OH) RedHawksLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
M-OH by 3.8market M-OH by 4.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
34.8 pointsmarket 38.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Miami (OH) RedHawks at 59% to win, with the market at M-OH by 4.5.
M-OH has the advantage in rushing: M-OH rushing ranks #86, NIU defends it at #109; the other way NIU #73 into M-OH's #47.
M-OH has the advantage in passing: M-OH passing ranks #106, NIU defends it at #62; the other way NIU #135 into M-OH's #48.
Home field is with NIU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it M-OH by 3.8 against a market M-OH by 4.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 34.8 against a line of 38.5: 3.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model M-OH by 3.8 · market M-OH by 4.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
M-OH
Slight advantage
M-OH passing ranks #106, NIU defends it at #62; the other way NIU #135 into M-OH's #48.
Rushing game
M-OH
Slight advantage
M-OH rushing ranks #86, NIU defends it at #109; the other way NIU #73 into M-OH's #47.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
M-OH third-down conversion ranks #109, NIU defends it at #110; the other way NIU #128 into M-OH's #106.
Big plays
NIU
Slight advantage
NIU rush explosiveness ranks #17, M-OH defends it at #56; the other way M-OH #105 into NIU's #55.
Pass protection & rush
M-OH
Clear advantage
M-OH sack rate ranks #95, NIU defends it at #122; the other way NIU #93 into M-OH's #23.
Ball security
M-OH
Slight advantage
M-OH turnovers / game ranks #37, NIU defends it at #93; the other way NIU #16 into M-OH's #46.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
NIU −0.6 per game over the last five, M-OH −1.6.
Market
M-OH
Clear advantage
Consensus has M-OH by 4.5; the model says M-OH by 3.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket M-OH by 4.5 · model M-OH by 3.8
Mkt M-OH 4.5
Model M-OH 3.8
← M-OH by 28tieNIU by 28 →
1.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 38.5 · model 34.8
Mkt 38.5
Model 34.8
24 pts6096 pts
6.8% of FBS games finish between 38.5 and 34.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
