The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
75%Buffalo BullsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BUFF by 11.7market BUFF by 9.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.5 pointsmarket 53.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Buffalo Bulls at 75% to win, with the market at BUFF by 9.5.
BUFF has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: BUFF third-down conversion ranks #103, EMU defends it at #129; the other way EMU #53 into BUFF's #27.
BUFF has the advantage in rushing: BUFF rushing ranks #129, EMU defends it at #127; the other way EMU #61 into BUFF's #30.
Home field is with BUFF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BUFF by 11.7 against a market BUFF by 9.5: 2.2 points of daylight in BUFF's favour. The model's total is 51.5 against a line of 53.5: 2.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BUFF by 11.7 · market BUFF by 9.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
BUFF passing ranks #96, EMU defends it at #112; the other way EMU #57 into BUFF's #70.
Rushing game
BUFF
Slight advantage
BUFF rushing ranks #129, EMU defends it at #127; the other way EMU #61 into BUFF's #30.
Third down & red zone
BUFF
Slight advantage
BUFF third-down conversion ranks #103, EMU defends it at #129; the other way EMU #53 into BUFF's #27.
Big plays
=
Even
BUFF rush explosiveness ranks #99, EMU defends it at #116; the other way EMU #67 into BUFF's #27.
Pass protection & rush
BUFF
Clear advantage
BUFF sack rate ranks #49, EMU defends it at #115; the other way EMU #5 into BUFF's #10.
Ball security
=
Even
EMU turnovers / game ranks #58, BUFF defends it at #67; the other way BUFF #125 into EMU's #124.
Form (last 5)
EMU
Slight advantage
BUFF −4.8 per game over the last five, EMU −2.0.
Market
BUFF
Clear advantage
Consensus has BUFF by 9.5; the model says BUFF by 11.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BUFF by 9.5 · model BUFF by 11.7
Mkt BUFF 9.5
Model BUFF 11.7
← EMU by 28tieBUFF by 28 →
3.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 53.5 · model 51.5
Mkt 53.5
Model 51.5
24 pts6096 pts
3.8% of FBS games finish between 53.5 and 51.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
